Supplementary material: The increasing cost of happiness

   

1. Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, NSW, Australia
2. ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course, University of Queensland, QLD, Australia
3. School of Economics, University of Technology, NSW, Australia
4. Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn, Germany
5. Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, NSW, Australia

 

Corresponding author:
Professor Nick Glozier
Faculty of Medicine and Health,
University of Sydney,
NSW 2050,
Australia
email: nick.glozier@sydney.edu.au

 

Draft: 08 February, 2021
Supplementary tables: 4
Supplementary figures: 3

keywords: Subjective wellbeing, household wealth, HILDA

 

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Supplementary Material

Sample characteristics

The broad demographic characteristics of the sample at each fourth year wave are presented below in Table S1.

Table S1. Demographic characteristics of the sample

Characteristic	2002 N = 11,6351	2006 N = 11,4741	2010 N = 11,9931	2014 N = 15,4961	2018 N = 15,7211
Life satisfaction	7.9 (±1.6)	7.9 (±1.5)	7.8 (±1.5)	7.9 (±1.5)	7.9 (±1.5)
Happiness	68.3 (±16.8)	68.3 (±16.7)	67.9 (±16.6)	67.6 (±17.1)	66.5 (±17.3)
Sex
Female	6,088 (52%)	6,069 (53%)	6,296 (52%)	8,100 (52%)	8,241 (52%)
Male	5,547 (48%)	5,405 (47%)	5,697 (48%)	7,396 (48%)	7,480 (48%)
Age (years)	46.4 (±16.6)	46.8 (±17.3)	46.9 (±17.7)	47.7 (±17.8)	48.2 (±18.2)
Education
High school or less	9,348 (80%)	8,943 (78%)	9,186 (77%)	11,408 (74%)	11,268 (72%)
Graduate	2,281 (20%)	2,526 (22%)	2,800 (23%)	4,077 (26%)	4,445 (28%)
Workforce
Employed	7,323 (63%)	7,568 (66%)	7,861 (66%)	9,916 (64%)	10,141 (65%)
Unemployed	389 (3.3%)	290 (2.5%)	384 (3.2%)	550 (3.5%)	500 (3.2%)
Not in labour force	3,923 (34%)	3,616 (32%)	3,748 (31%)	5,030 (32%)	5,080 (32%)
Relationship status
Single	1,847 (16%)	1,913 (17%)	2,063 (17%)	2,669 (17%)	2,782 (18%)
Married	7,956 (68%)	7,737 (67%)	8,106 (68%)	10,558 (68%)	10,630 (68%)
Divorced/Widow	1,832 (16%)	1,824 (16%)	1,824 (15%)	2,269 (15%)	2,309 (15%)
Chronic illness	2,735 (24%)	3,278 (29%)	3,467 (29%)	4,757 (31%)	4,849 (31%)
SEIFA	5.5 (±2.9)	5.6 (±2.8)	5.6 (±2.8)	5.5 (±2.8)	5.6 (±2.8)
Household size	2.8 (±1.4)	2.8 (±1.4)	2.8 (±1.4)	2.8 (±1.5)	2.8 (±1.4)
1Statistics presented: Mean (±SD); n (%)

Average life satisfaction levels were very steady between 2002-2018, while average happiness score decreased slightly over the 17 years. The proportions of each sex and relationship status were stable over time, as were the average household size and SEIFA index. However age and chronic health conditions tended to increase over time, indicating a slight increase in the age of the panel over time (1.8 years) but not that of a cohort study which would be 16 years. Education levels (i.e., graduate percentage) also tended to increase over time, while changes in the workforce varied with economic circumstances.

Model Selection

We compared the posterior evidence of a linear- over a nonlinear- relationship between each wellbeing variable and income (i.e., WAIC_linear — WAIC_piecewise). Thus a WAIC difference greater than zero indicated evidence for a linear relationship. A WAIC difference less than zero indicated evidence for a nonlinear (piecewise) relationship.

Figure S1. Linear model evidence (WAIC_linear — WAIC_piecewise)

Figure S1 legend: Differences in posterior evidence for a linear fit over a piecewise fit (WAIC) for happiness (red) and satisfaction (blue). The filled circle indicates the mean of the distribution and the horizontal bars represents the 95% credible interval. A difference greater than zero is support for the linear model and a difference below zero is support for the piecewise model.

The posterior evidence from model selection revealed the nonlinear (piecewise) fit of happiness, but not satisfaction, was credibly superior to a linear fit in each year. Figure S1 shows the 95% credible interval of the difference in WAIC values for the linear over nonlinear fits for happiness was below zero with no overlap for each year, indicating consistent support for the nonlinear model. By contrast, the WAIC differences for the satisfaction models were generally positive, indicating the superiority of the linear fit for this dependent variable. Overall the posterior evidence suggests that happiness and satisfaction have distinct relationships with household income; satisfaction tends to increase linearly with income, while a change point exists in the relationship between happiness and household income.

Model predictions (2002-2018)

The posterior estimates of the piecewise model indicated that the relationship between happiness and income changed over time between 2002 and 2018. One implication of such a change is the disparity in happiness between income groups has increased. This will occur as more people fall below the change point over time and so are subject to the steep region of the function where income and happiness are strongly related. To directly examine the implications of our model for such inequities in happiness, we used the model to estimate or predict the happiness of two different income levels: one income level which fell below the change points between 2002-2018 ($40K/yr); and another level which always remained above the change points over the same period ($75K/yr). Figure S2 below presents the happiness levels (in SD units/year) for each income level as well as the difference in happiness between them (∆).

Figure S2. Happiness (SD units) at $40K/yr and $75K/yr from 2002-2018

Figure S2 legend: The difference (∆) in happiness between a household income of $40K per year and a household income of $75K per year has increased between 2002 and 2018.

Figure S2 shows the disparity in happiness between two fixed income levels, $40K/year (below the change points) and $75K/year (above the change points). In 2002, a household income of $40K/year achieved a near average level of happiness relative to everyone else that year, however by 2018 happiness had declined to lower than average levels relative to the population. By contrast, a household income of $75K/year enjoyed a higher than average level of happiness for the entire period. The difference (∆) in happiness between these two income levels doubled over the period. The increasing disparity in happiness between the rich and the poor implies that happiness has became more inequitable over the period.

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Figure S3. Residual plots for piecewise happiness models

Figure S3 legend: The joint distribution between residual and fitted values shows no common patterns across years and appears clustered around zero in each case.

Examination of the residual plots from the piecewise models of happiness confirms the residuals were evenly distributed around zero and there was little indication of heterscedascity. Overall, there was little evidence that the piecewise models of happiness were not appropriate for the data.

Complete parameter estimates and fit statistics

There were df = 59,876 total observations. 4000 samples (post-warmup) were drawn using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS and Tail_ESS are effective sample size (ESS) measures, and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor on split chains. In each case the Rhat apprached 1, indicating convergance. The smallest ESS was n = 472, which is greater than a conservative estimate of the sufficient n for estimation (n > 300).

The Bayes R² = 0.04 ±0.001 (95%CI 0.037 — 0.043)

Coefficient definitions:

alpha is the log value of wealth (x) at the changepoint
b0 is the intercept denoting the expected value of wellbeing (y) at the changepoint
b1 is the linear slope before the changepoint
b2 is the linear slope after the changepoint
b3 is the coefficient of education (graduate)
b4 is the coefficient of age
b5 is the coefficient of age²
b6 is the coefficient of sex (male)

Table S1. Piecewise parameter estimates for happiness

Parameter	Year	Estimate	Est.Error	l-95% CI	u-95% CI	Rhat	Bulk_ESS	Tail_ESS
alpha	2018	-2.552	0.075	-2.718	-2.415	1.0	5472	4824
	2017	-2.656	0.079	-2.816	-2.522	1.0	4303	7063
	2016	-2.731	0.074	-2.860	-2.584	1.0	6384	8892
	2015	-2.665	0.130	-2.921	-2.448	1.0	2834	6203
	2014	-2.866	0.115	-3.041	-2.570	1.0	4085	2740
	2013	-2.702	0.083	-2.866	-2.545	1.0	6171	7550
	2012	-2.753	0.066	-2.873	-2.609	1.0	6740	6462
	2011	-2.943	0.065	-3.072	-2.824	1.0	7073	7835
	2010	-3.008	0.133	-3.247	-2.697	1.0	4151	3470
	2009	-2.674	0.127	-2.938	-2.450	1.0	3873	4590
	2008	-2.782	0.266	-3.041	-2.238	1.0	219	1146
	2007	-2.997	0.059	-3.110	-2.876	1.0	5871	6139
	2006	-2.956	0.094	-3.118	-2.753	1.0	5444	6112
	2005	-2.840	0.093	-3.000	-2.641	1.0	4800	5441
	2004	-2.877	0.131	-3.110	-2.562	1.0	4662	4143
	2003	-2.487	0.146	-2.890	-2.250	1.0	4154	2080
	2002	-3.057	0.107	-3.226	-2.785	1.0	5454	3289
b0	2018	0.053	0.030	-0.008	0.112	1.0	5543	6064
	2017	0.027	0.029	-0.030	0.081	1.0	4590	8059
	2016	-0.006	0.026	-0.056	0.046	1.0	6825	8114
	2015	0.023	0.042	-0.058	0.099	1.0	2840	6338
	2014	-0.032	0.033	-0.086	0.045	1.0	4131	3059
	2013	-0.021	0.028	-0.075	0.033	1.0	6824	7844
	2012	-0.014	0.026	-0.063	0.040	1.0	7029	7528
	2011	-0.045	0.025	-0.093	0.004	1.0	7107	7751
	2010	-0.068	0.034	-0.130	0.006	1.0	4298	4104
	2009	0.011	0.043	-0.071	0.096	1.0	4157	6108
	2008	0.026	0.084	-0.068	0.212	1.0	236	1276
	2007	0.004	0.024	-0.042	0.051	1.0	6508	7207
	2006	0.001	0.033	-0.059	0.069	1.0	5604	6302
	2005	0.036	0.035	-0.026	0.112	1.0	5091	5838
	2004	0.019	0.047	-0.059	0.130	1.0	4828	4394
	2003	0.171	0.061	0.025	0.282	1.0	4225	2312
	2002	-0.003	0.030	-0.057	0.063	1.0	5438	4220
b1	2018	0.087	0.008	0.074	0.104	1.0	7858	5682
	2017	0.099	0.010	0.082	0.120	1.0	5024	7076
	2016	0.100	0.010	0.082	0.119	1.0	7907	8694
	2015	0.095	0.014	0.074	0.126	1.0	3187	6110
	2014	0.110	0.016	0.079	0.141	1.0	4580	3570
	2013	0.091	0.010	0.073	0.111	1.0	7719	8334
	2012	0.104	0.010	0.085	0.123	1.0	8166	7897
	2011	0.136	0.013	0.111	0.163	1.0	8426	8048
	2010	0.125	0.022	0.083	0.175	1.0	4707	4598
	2009	0.095	0.013	0.074	0.124	1.0	4542	5573
	2008	0.112	0.025	0.067	0.150	1.0	232	992
	2007	0.145	0.015	0.117	0.175	1.0	7079	7785
	2006	0.127	0.016	0.098	0.159	1.0	7184	7679
	2005	0.115	0.013	0.091	0.141	1.0	6325	7057
	2004	0.112	0.015	0.084	0.141	1.0	5623	6230
	2003	0.079	0.009	0.066	0.100	1.0	5136	2616
	2002	0.112	0.016	0.079	0.143	1.0	6085	4885
b2	2018	0.010	0.003	0.004	0.017	1.0	10196	8753
	2017	0.008	0.003	0.003	0.013	1.0	9390	9529
	2016	0.011	0.003	0.005	0.016	1.0	12250	10342
	2015	0.012	0.004	0.004	0.020	1.0	4064	7318
	2014	0.016	0.003	0.009	0.022	1.0	6872	5256
	2013	0.010	0.003	0.004	0.016	1.0	11528	9635
	2012	0.014	0.003	0.007	0.020	1.0	11725	9370
	2011	0.016	0.003	0.010	0.022	1.0	11718	9541
	2010	0.016	0.003	0.009	0.022	1.0	7483	7315
	2009	0.012	0.004	0.003	0.020	1.0	6532	8426
	2008	0.013	0.006	-0.001	0.021	1.0	215	1065
	2007	0.009	0.003	0.003	0.014	1.0	13676	9974
	2006	0.020	0.004	0.012	0.028	1.0	9227	8810
	2005	0.014	0.005	0.004	0.023	1.0	8652	7631
	2004	0.022	0.006	0.011	0.033	1.0	6852	6478
	2003	0.011	0.007	-0.003	0.027	1.0	5406	3546
	2002	0.013	0.005	0.004	0.022	1.0	9130	6416
b3	2018	0.074	0.019	0.037	0.111	1.0	11204	8453
	2017	0.072	0.019	0.035	0.109	1.0	11049	9233
	2016	0.074	0.019	0.037	0.111	1.0	12188	9126
	2015	0.064	0.020	0.025	0.103	1.0	9486	8202
	2014	0.049	0.020	0.010	0.089	1.0	11251	8389
	2013	0.076	0.020	0.037	0.115	1.0	12362	8848
	2012	0.061	0.021	0.021	0.101	1.0	10996	8265
	2011	0.064	0.021	0.024	0.105	1.0	12069	8070
	2010	0.052	0.024	0.006	0.098	1.0	10971	8286
	2009	0.041	0.024	-0.007	0.088	1.0	10339	8838
	2008	0.025	0.027	-0.027	0.077	1.0	1392	3913
	2007	0.038	0.025	-0.012	0.085	1.0	11273	8480
	2006	0.051	0.024	0.004	0.098	1.0	12284	8855
	2005	0.068	0.025	0.019	0.116	1.0	11291	9193
	2004	0.042	0.025	-0.005	0.092	1.0	10005	9062
	2003	0.001	0.025	-0.048	0.049	1.0	10346	7768
	2002	0.056	0.025	0.008	0.105	1.0	7902	6784
b4	2018	0.162	0.016	0.130	0.194	1.0	12231	8891
	2017	0.159	0.016	0.128	0.191	1.0	12208	8685
	2016	0.165	0.016	0.132	0.197	1.0	12478	7904
	2015	0.160	0.017	0.127	0.192	1.0	10573	8426
	2014	0.130	0.017	0.098	0.163	1.0	10748	8904
	2013	0.160	0.017	0.126	0.194	1.0	12993	7821
	2012	0.167	0.017	0.134	0.200	1.0	11112	8556
	2011	0.136	0.017	0.103	0.167	1.0	12033	8945
	2010	0.180	0.019	0.143	0.217	1.0	9835	8565
	2009	0.173	0.019	0.135	0.211	1.0	10287	9023
	2008	0.146	0.020	0.107	0.186	1.0	8738	8148
	2007	0.152	0.019	0.113	0.190	1.0	10375	8168
	2006	0.137	0.019	0.099	0.175	1.0	12977	8755
	2005	0.138	0.019	0.100	0.176	1.0	11787	8765
	2004	0.161	0.019	0.123	0.199	1.0	9932	8377
	2003	0.139	0.020	0.100	0.178	1.0	11440	8457
	2002	0.146	0.019	0.109	0.183	1.0	7931	7351
b5	2018	0.132	0.009	0.115	0.149	1.0	13278	9562
	2017	0.128	0.009	0.110	0.144	1.0	12532	8450
	2016	0.110	0.009	0.093	0.127	1.0	13529	8672
	2015	0.098	0.009	0.080	0.115	1.0	10882	8875
	2014	0.076	0.009	0.058	0.094	1.0	11956	8815
	2013	0.074	0.009	0.055	0.092	1.0	12404	8055
	2012	0.070	0.009	0.052	0.088	1.0	11601	8303
	2011	0.072	0.009	0.054	0.091	1.0	13429	8574
	2010	0.046	0.010	0.026	0.066	1.0	12143	8694
	2009	0.072	0.011	0.051	0.093	1.0	10417	8448
	2008	0.066	0.011	0.043	0.087	1.0	3095	6799
	2007	0.075	0.011	0.055	0.096	1.0	11270	9261
	2006	0.075	0.011	0.055	0.096	1.0	13602	8766
	2005	0.080	0.011	0.059	0.100	1.0	12221	8564
	2004	0.083	0.011	0.061	0.104	1.0	10224	8561
	2003	0.055	0.011	0.033	0.076	1.0	10487	8698
	2002	0.061	0.011	0.040	0.082	1.0	7262	7480
b6	2018	0.015	0.008	-0.001	0.031	1.0	12933	8532
	2017	0.030	0.008	0.014	0.046	1.0	12266	8540
	2016	0.026	0.008	0.010	0.042	1.0	13099	9006
	2015	0.017	0.008	0.001	0.034	1.0	10727	8637
	2014	0.033	0.008	0.017	0.049	1.0	12856	8975
	2013	0.042	0.009	0.025	0.059	1.0	12639	8558
	2012	0.030	0.009	0.014	0.047	1.0	11774	8472
	2011	0.044	0.008	0.027	0.060	1.0	12339	8858
	2010	0.025	0.009	0.006	0.043	1.0	11767	8632
	2009	0.031	0.010	0.012	0.050	1.0	9995	8638
	2008	0.027	0.010	0.008	0.046	1.0	6431	8533
	2007	0.017	0.009	-0.002	0.035	1.0	10701	8874
	2006	0.014	0.009	-0.004	0.033	1.0	12686	8409
	2005	0.022	0.009	0.004	0.040	1.0	11749	8742
	2004	0.021	0.010	0.002	0.039	1.0	10169	8626
	2003	0.014	0.009	-0.004	0.033	1.0	10804	9196
	2002	0.004	0.009	-0.014	0.022	1.0	7485	8638
b7	2018	-0.013	0.009	-0.032	0.005	1.0	14279	8426
	2017	-0.009	0.009	-0.028	0.009	1.0	13779	8245
	2016	-0.001	0.009	-0.018	0.016	1.0	14702	8782
	2015	-0.002	0.009	-0.020	0.017	1.0	11501	8795
	2014	0.002	0.010	-0.018	0.022	1.0	12714	8434
	2013	0.016	0.010	-0.003	0.035	1.0	14291	9040
	2012	0.019	0.010	-0.001	0.039	1.0	11738	8830
	2011	0.011	0.009	-0.007	0.030	1.0	13366	8342
	2010	-0.017	0.011	-0.039	0.004	1.0	12658	8195
	2009	-0.030	0.012	-0.052	-0.007	1.0	12408	8936
	2008	-0.023	0.012	-0.047	0.001	1.0	9680	8078
	2007	-0.024	0.011	-0.046	-0.001	1.0	12640	8804
	2006	-0.031	0.012	-0.054	-0.008	1.0	14266	8299
	2005	-0.045	0.012	-0.070	-0.021	1.0	12913	8511
	2004	-0.032	0.013	-0.057	-0.008	1.0	11245	8975
	2003	-0.028	0.013	-0.053	-0.004	1.0	11529	8548
	2002	-0.058	0.012	-0.082	-0.034	1.0	9952	8211
sigma	2018	0.974	0.006	0.963	0.986	1.0	15655	7673
	2017	0.976	0.006	0.964	0.987	1.0	15506	8441
	2016	0.979	0.006	0.968	0.990	1.0	16132	9200
	2015	0.979	0.006	0.968	0.991	1.0	13711	8663
	2014	0.983	0.006	0.971	0.994	1.0	16124	8688
	2013	0.982	0.006	0.970	0.994	1.0	15219	8271
	2012	0.979	0.006	0.968	0.991	1.0	13360	9337
	2011	0.980	0.006	0.969	0.992	1.0	14503	9353
	2010	0.983	0.007	0.970	0.997	1.0	15065	8299
	2009	0.981	0.007	0.967	0.994	1.0	13659	8781
	2008	0.982	0.007	0.969	0.996	1.0	10357	8886
	2007	0.982	0.007	0.969	0.995	1.0	14836	9236
	2006	0.981	0.007	0.968	0.994	1.0	15746	8408
	2005	0.980	0.007	0.967	0.993	1.0	14754	8100
	2004	0.980	0.007	0.967	0.994	1.0	12247	8967
	2003	0.984	0.007	0.971	0.998	1.0	12670	8064
	2002	0.987	0.007	0.973	1.000	1.0	7527	6712

Table S2. Linear parameter estimates for happiness

Parameter	Year	Estimate	Est.Error	l-95% CI	u-95% CI	Rhat	Bulk_ESS	Tail_ESS
Intercept	2018	-0.316	0.019	-0.353	-0.277	1.0	14006	10228
	2017	-0.291	0.019	-0.329	-0.253	1.0	13073	10321
	2016	-0.306	0.019	-0.344	-0.268	1.0	14068	10370
	2015	-0.313	0.020	-0.353	-0.274	1.0	13763	10488
	2014	-0.297	0.020	-0.335	-0.258	1.0	14018	10053
	2013	-0.312	0.020	-0.351	-0.272	1.0	15651	10085
	2012	-0.334	0.020	-0.374	-0.294	1.0	15044	9419
	2011	-0.329	0.020	-0.368	-0.288	1.0	15264	10032
	2010	-0.293	0.023	-0.338	-0.250	1.0	15413	10151
	2009	-0.322	0.023	-0.368	-0.276	1.0	15612	10143
	2008	-0.286	0.023	-0.332	-0.242	1.0	14927	10486
	2007	-0.234	0.022	-0.278	-0.192	1.0	14104	10340
	2006	-0.300	0.023	-0.344	-0.255	1.0	14512	9458
	2005	-0.304	0.023	-0.350	-0.258	1.0	18269	9269
	2004	-0.337	0.023	-0.383	-0.291	1.0	16123	9961
	2003	-0.300	0.023	-0.345	-0.255	1.0	14964	10083
	2002	-0.237	0.022	-0.280	-0.193	1.0	15569	9592
dollars	2018	0.033	0.002	0.029	0.037	1.0	19127	9998
	2017	0.027	0.002	0.024	0.031	1.0	18387	10060
	2016	0.030	0.002	0.026	0.034	1.0	19864	10204
	2015	0.034	0.002	0.029	0.038	1.0	20147	10087
	2014	0.031	0.002	0.027	0.035	1.0	20813	9558
	2013	0.029	0.002	0.025	0.033	1.0	20564	9776
	2012	0.035	0.002	0.031	0.040	1.0	19263	9816
	2011	0.035	0.002	0.030	0.039	1.0	18440	9290
	2010	0.030	0.002	0.025	0.034	1.0	19683	10210
	2009	0.034	0.003	0.029	0.039	1.0	19411	10133
	2008	0.032	0.002	0.027	0.037	1.0	19275	10239
	2007	0.025	0.002	0.021	0.030	1.0	20606	9870
	2006	0.040	0.003	0.034	0.045	1.0	20396	10117
	2005	0.040	0.003	0.034	0.046	1.0	22024	9664
	2004	0.048	0.003	0.041	0.054	1.0	19019	9389
	2003	0.046	0.003	0.039	0.052	1.0	17897	9692
	2002	0.033	0.003	0.027	0.039	1.0	19647	9792
grad	2018	0.103	0.019	0.066	0.140	1.0	11657	8807
	2017	0.108	0.019	0.071	0.145	1.0	10077	8584
	2016	0.098	0.019	0.061	0.136	1.0	9644	8660
	2015	0.086	0.020	0.048	0.124	1.0	11031	8890
	2014	0.068	0.020	0.029	0.105	1.0	11203	8900
	2013	0.097	0.020	0.058	0.136	1.0	12095	8973
	2012	0.078	0.020	0.039	0.118	1.0	10996	9294
	2011	0.079	0.020	0.039	0.119	1.0	12104	8737
	2010	0.064	0.023	0.018	0.110	1.0	12782	8831
	2009	0.064	0.024	0.017	0.111	1.0	12111	8978
	2008	0.054	0.025	0.006	0.103	1.0	12808	8695
	2007	0.067	0.024	0.020	0.114	1.0	10230	8570
	2006	0.071	0.024	0.024	0.118	1.0	11556	9107
	2005	0.096	0.025	0.047	0.145	1.0	15613	9054
	2004	0.060	0.025	0.011	0.108	1.0	10952	9517
	2003	0.027	0.025	-0.022	0.076	1.0	11297	9208
	2002	0.069	0.025	0.021	0.118	1.0	12773	8684
age	2018	0.115	0.009	0.098	0.132	1.0	11227	9635
	2017	0.106	0.009	0.090	0.123	1.0	11325	8997
	2016	0.091	0.009	0.075	0.108	1.0	12091	8374
	2015	0.082	0.009	0.064	0.099	1.0	10567	8693
	2014	0.058	0.009	0.040	0.076	1.0	10989	8467
	2013	0.056	0.009	0.038	0.074	1.0	12008	9546
	2012	0.049	0.009	0.032	0.067	1.0	11331	9625
	2011	0.050	0.009	0.032	0.068	1.0	13077	9763
	2010	0.027	0.010	0.006	0.047	1.0	10760	8808
	2009	0.047	0.011	0.026	0.068	1.0	10922	8987
	2008	0.041	0.011	0.021	0.062	1.0	12210	9086
	2007	0.048	0.011	0.028	0.068	1.0	12197	10017
	2006	0.054	0.010	0.033	0.074	1.0	11566	9238
	2005	0.059	0.011	0.038	0.080	1.0	14325	9516
	2004	0.066	0.011	0.045	0.087	1.0	11391	9310
	2003	0.043	0.011	0.022	0.064	1.0	12258	9349
	2002	0.045	0.011	0.024	0.066	1.0	11233	8473
age_sq	2018	-0.001	0.008	-0.017	0.015	1.0	11109	8882
	2017	0.010	0.008	-0.006	0.026	1.0	10722	8526
	2016	0.010	0.008	-0.006	0.026	1.0	10926	8888
	2015	0.002	0.008	-0.014	0.018	1.0	10702	8938
	2014	0.018	0.008	0.002	0.034	1.0	10944	8950
	2013	0.026	0.008	0.009	0.042	1.0	11501	9677
	2012	0.014	0.008	-0.003	0.030	1.0	11191	8770
	2011	0.025	0.008	0.009	0.041	1.0	12111	9170
	2010	0.011	0.009	-0.007	0.029	1.0	11752	9509
	2009	0.016	0.009	-0.003	0.034	1.0	11600	9348
	2008	0.012	0.010	-0.008	0.030	1.0	11560	9064
	2007	-0.002	0.010	-0.021	0.017	1.0	10630	8049
	2006	-0.000	0.009	-0.018	0.018	1.0	11386	8843
	2005	0.008	0.009	-0.010	0.026	1.0	14429	8527
	2004	0.009	0.009	-0.009	0.028	1.0	11468	9210
	2003	0.007	0.009	-0.011	0.025	1.0	11813	8675
	2002	-0.009	0.009	-0.026	0.010	1.0	11330	9643
male	2018	0.171	0.016	0.138	0.203	1.0	12081	8698
	2017	0.170	0.016	0.138	0.202	1.0	11135	7889
	2016	0.174	0.016	0.142	0.207	1.0	11233	8879
	2015	0.167	0.017	0.134	0.200	1.0	11220	8949
	2014	0.138	0.017	0.104	0.170	1.0	10685	9161
	2013	0.169	0.017	0.136	0.202	1.0	11261	8336
	2012	0.177	0.017	0.143	0.209	1.0	9968	8683
	2011	0.148	0.017	0.115	0.181	1.0	10976	8591
	2010	0.188	0.019	0.151	0.225	1.0	13088	9238
	2009	0.183	0.020	0.145	0.221	1.0	11448	8924
	2008	0.155	0.020	0.116	0.194	1.0	12673	9016
	2007	0.164	0.020	0.125	0.202	1.0	10811	8779
	2006	0.146	0.019	0.108	0.184	1.0	12257	8727
	2005	0.145	0.019	0.108	0.183	1.0	16872	9600
	2004	0.168	0.019	0.130	0.206	1.0	12085	9283
	2003	0.144	0.019	0.107	0.182	1.0	13152	9230
	2002	0.153	0.019	0.116	0.191	1.0	13412	9750
sigma	2018	0.979	0.006	0.968	0.991	1.0	14442	9369
	2017	0.982	0.006	0.971	0.993	1.0	13014	8298
	2016	0.983	0.006	0.972	0.995	1.0	14319	8855
	2015	0.984	0.006	0.972	0.995	1.0	15810	8843
	2014	0.987	0.006	0.975	0.999	1.0	12493	8776
	2013	0.986	0.006	0.974	0.998	1.0	12853	9242
	2012	0.984	0.006	0.972	0.996	1.0	14535	9003
	2011	0.985	0.006	0.974	0.997	1.0	14082	9203
	2010	0.987	0.007	0.974	1.001	1.0	15396	8926
	2009	0.985	0.007	0.972	0.999	1.0	15378	9419
	2008	0.987	0.007	0.973	1.001	1.0	14429	8890
	2007	0.989	0.007	0.976	1.003	1.0	13405	9885
	2006	0.985	0.007	0.972	0.998	1.0	13470	9216
	2005	0.986	0.007	0.972	1.000	1.0	18106	9150
	2004	0.983	0.007	0.970	0.997	1.0	13797	8844
	2003	0.987	0.007	0.974	1.000	1.0	15662	8452
	2002	0.990	0.007	0.977	1.004	1.0	15600	9265

Table S3. Piecewise parameter estimates for satisfaction

Parameter	Year	Estimate	Est.Error	l-95% CI	u-95% CI	Rhat	Bulk_ESS	Tail_ESS
alpha	2018	-3.009	0.087	-3.159	-2.825	1.0	5796	6401
	2017	-2.591	0.128	-2.835	-2.371	1.0	3522	7302
	2016	-2.848	0.120	-3.052	-2.557	1.0	2882	2724
	2015	-2.543	0.148	-3.034	-2.355	1.0	2345	752
	2014	-2.419	0.073	-2.587	-2.287	1.0	6196	3543
	2013	-2.809	0.077	-2.946	-2.647	1.0	5706	6100
	2012	-2.744	0.060	-2.854	-2.617	1.0	6608	5786
	2011	-3.052	0.110	-3.245	-2.839	1.0	3674	8091
	2010	-2.097	0.165	-2.471	-1.816	1.0	5211	4410
	2009	-2.933	0.206	-3.259	-2.539	1.0	2544	6140
	2008	-2.291	0.217	-2.743	-1.826	1.0	3370	2947
	2007	-2.762	0.172	-3.062	-2.325	1.0	3736	2942
	2006	0.150	2.619	-3.305	5.689	1.5	7	122
	2005	-2.225	0.324	-2.795	-1.513	1.0	2470	2825
	2004	-3.107	0.378	-3.564	-2.223	1.0	1913	3248
	2003	-2.646	0.190	-2.983	-2.256	1.0	4233	5396
	2002	-3.038	0.295	-3.530	-2.380	1.0	3088	3259
b0	2018	-0.068	0.025	-0.114	-0.018	1.0	6309	7242
	2017	0.056	0.038	-0.015	0.128	1.0	3505	6850
	2016	-0.036	0.032	-0.092	0.038	1.0	2962	2360
	2015	0.031	0.042	-0.087	0.096	1.0	2239	795
	2014	0.094	0.028	0.035	0.148	1.0	5861	4248
	2013	-0.014	0.024	-0.059	0.035	1.0	6436	6114
	2012	-0.016	0.022	-0.059	0.030	1.0	6943	6921
	2011	-0.058	0.028	-0.109	-0.002	1.0	3975	6762
	2010	0.129	0.056	0.015	0.237	1.0	5496	5272
	2009	-0.031	0.043	-0.101	0.059	1.0	2400	6255
	2008	0.122	0.068	0.001	0.271	1.0	3384	2988
	2007	0.074	0.041	0.007	0.177	1.0	3712	3056
	2006	1.126	0.944	-0.073	2.599	1.5	7	91
	2005	0.217	0.125	0.040	0.521	1.0	2533	2776
	2004	0.033	0.084	-0.065	0.249	1.0	1917	3027
	2003	0.134	0.057	0.039	0.258	1.0	4440	5418
	2002	0.027	0.060	-0.067	0.170	1.0	3120	3468
b1	2018	0.115	0.015	0.087	0.145	1.0	6905	8168
	2017	0.077	0.010	0.061	0.100	1.0	4224	6443
	2016	0.098	0.014	0.070	0.128	1.0	3495	3178
	2015	0.070	0.012	0.056	0.106	1.0	2591	811
	2014	0.064	0.005	0.055	0.075	1.0	8802	6392
	2013	0.088	0.009	0.070	0.107	1.0	7204	7706
	2012	0.087	0.008	0.072	0.102	1.0	8564	7777
	2011	0.124	0.018	0.092	0.162	1.0	4164	7290
	2010	0.043	0.005	0.034	0.054	1.0	7594	6355
	2009	0.089	0.020	0.058	0.128	1.0	2771	7262
	2008	0.050	0.007	0.038	0.067	1.0	4919	4199
	2007	0.077	0.014	0.051	0.105	1.0	4578	4413
	2006	0.033	0.023	0.021	0.074	1.3	9	101
	2005	0.050	0.007	0.038	0.065	1.0	4076	4885
	2004	0.099	0.034	0.049	0.167	1.0	2046	4384
	2003	0.067	0.010	0.050	0.088	1.0	5513	6127
	2002	0.086	0.026	0.049	0.149	1.0	3470	5376
b2	2018	0.018	0.003	0.013	0.023	1.0	11457	9423
	2017	0.009	0.003	0.003	0.015	1.0	6091	7618
	2016	0.014	0.003	0.007	0.019	1.0	5105	4907
	2015	0.012	0.004	0.005	0.021	1.0	2956	1315
	2014	0.010	0.003	0.004	0.016	1.0	9955	7475
	2013	0.015	0.003	0.009	0.020	1.0	10976	8677
	2012	0.012	0.003	0.006	0.018	1.0	13160	9581
	2011	0.017	0.003	0.011	0.022	1.0	7133	8981
	2010	0.002	0.005	-0.008	0.012	1.0	7857	7330
	2009	0.014	0.004	0.006	0.021	1.0	4111	7159
	2008	0.007	0.005	-0.003	0.016	1.0	5080	4397
	2007	0.008	0.003	0.001	0.014	1.0	5986	6240
	2006	0.005	2.257	-5.187	5.088	1.4	1698	406
	2005	0.009	0.009	-0.009	0.023	1.0	3654	3400
	2004	0.022	0.007	0.005	0.032	1.0	2627	3807
	2003	0.012	0.007	-0.003	0.024	1.0	6270	6729
	2002	0.018	0.006	0.005	0.028	1.0	4458	4674
b3	2018	0.009	0.018	-0.027	0.045	1.0	10675	8368
	2017	-0.012	0.019	-0.049	0.025	1.0	7633	7876
	2016	0.008	0.018	-0.028	0.044	1.0	8625	7399
	2015	-0.009	0.019	-0.046	0.029	1.0	8874	8246
	2014	-0.017	0.019	-0.054	0.019	1.0	10781	8711
	2013	-0.037	0.019	-0.073	0.000	1.0	10542	8903
	2012	-0.009	0.019	-0.047	0.029	1.0	9819	8157
	2011	-0.011	0.019	-0.049	0.026	1.0	10814	8505
	2010	-0.021	0.023	-0.065	0.024	1.0	9141	8602
	2009	-0.013	0.023	-0.057	0.032	1.0	7964	8206
	2008	-0.043	0.023	-0.089	0.003	1.0	10047	8705
	2007	-0.078	0.024	-0.125	-0.031	1.0	8492	8387
	2006	-0.036	0.024	-0.083	0.011	1.0	145	5732
	2005	-0.083	0.024	-0.130	-0.036	1.0	8653	7735
	2004	-0.082	0.024	-0.130	-0.033	1.0	6691	7545
	2003	-0.109	0.024	-0.158	-0.062	1.0	10328	8628
	2002	-0.085	0.025	-0.132	-0.037	1.0	9829	7970
b4	2018	0.070	0.008	0.053	0.086	1.0	11685	8285
	2017	0.061	0.008	0.044	0.077	1.0	9594	8649
	2016	0.070	0.008	0.053	0.086	1.0	9173	9239
	2015	0.055	0.008	0.038	0.071	1.0	10474	8393
	2014	0.066	0.008	0.050	0.083	1.0	12341	8631
	2013	0.077	0.008	0.060	0.094	1.0	9937	8223
	2012	0.065	0.008	0.048	0.081	1.0	10424	8336
	2011	0.060	0.009	0.043	0.077	1.0	10762	8558
	2010	0.051	0.010	0.033	0.070	1.0	10826	7560
	2009	0.086	0.010	0.067	0.106	1.0	10700	8548
	2008	0.087	0.010	0.068	0.106	1.0	10667	9292
	2007	0.106	0.010	0.087	0.126	1.0	9486	7714
	2006	0.109	0.010	0.090	0.130	1.0	100	5090
	2005	0.121	0.010	0.102	0.141	1.0	9190	8563
	2004	0.128	0.010	0.108	0.148	1.0	9179	8503
	2003	0.123	0.010	0.103	0.143	1.0	10191	8337
	2002	0.129	0.010	0.109	0.149	1.0	10190	8747
b5	2018	0.134	0.008	0.119	0.150	1.0	11021	8946
	2017	0.118	0.008	0.103	0.133	1.0	8717	8302
	2016	0.130	0.008	0.114	0.145	1.0	9345	8519
	2015	0.131	0.008	0.116	0.146	1.0	11314	8777
	2014	0.129	0.008	0.115	0.144	1.0	12129	8086
	2013	0.130	0.008	0.115	0.145	1.0	11579	8894
	2012	0.141	0.008	0.126	0.156	1.0	10954	8394
	2011	0.135	0.008	0.120	0.150	1.0	9739	8752
	2010	0.123	0.009	0.107	0.140	1.0	10126	8895
	2009	0.111	0.009	0.094	0.128	1.0	9536	8098
	2008	0.109	0.009	0.092	0.126	1.0	10640	8690
	2007	0.081	0.009	0.064	0.099	1.0	9577	8634
	2006	0.084	0.009	0.067	0.101	1.0	216	6141
	2005	0.092	0.009	0.076	0.110	1.0	9211	8415
	2004	0.081	0.009	0.064	0.098	1.0	8662	7884
	2003	0.091	0.009	0.075	0.108	1.0	10073	8832
	2002	0.081	0.008	0.065	0.098	1.0	10453	9043
b6	2018	-0.063	0.016	-0.094	-0.032	1.0	10751	8041
	2017	-0.059	0.016	-0.089	-0.027	1.0	8916	8293
	2016	-0.035	0.016	-0.066	-0.004	1.0	8853	8230
	2015	-0.039	0.016	-0.070	-0.008	1.0	9617	7984
	2014	-0.099	0.016	-0.129	-0.067	1.0	11675	8109
	2013	-0.061	0.016	-0.093	-0.030	1.0	10075	8441
	2012	-0.045	0.016	-0.077	-0.013	1.0	9777	8853
	2011	-0.069	0.016	-0.100	-0.038	1.0	11111	8662
	2010	-0.044	0.018	-0.079	-0.009	1.0	9624	7946
	2009	-0.054	0.018	-0.089	-0.018	1.0	9452	8027
	2008	-0.061	0.019	-0.098	-0.025	1.0	10248	7732
	2007	-0.071	0.019	-0.108	-0.034	1.0	9126	8451
	2006	-0.066	0.018	-0.103	-0.030	1.0	6185	6126
	2005	-0.094	0.019	-0.130	-0.057	1.0	9648	8018
	2004	-0.106	0.019	-0.142	-0.070	1.0	8243	7566
	2003	-0.104	0.018	-0.140	-0.068	1.0	10116	7952
	2002	-0.061	0.018	-0.097	-0.025	1.0	10694	7985
sigma	2018	0.981	0.005	0.970	0.991	1.0	14252	8298
	2017	0.984	0.006	0.973	0.995	1.0	10967	8445
	2016	0.982	0.006	0.971	0.993	1.0	13353	9321
	2015	0.983	0.006	0.972	0.993	1.0	13255	8527
	2014	0.980	0.005	0.970	0.991	1.0	14400	8809
	2013	0.981	0.006	0.970	0.992	1.0	13524	8950
	2012	0.981	0.006	0.970	0.992	1.0	13467	8290
	2011	0.981	0.006	0.971	0.992	1.0	13995	8536
	2010	0.986	0.006	0.973	0.998	1.0	10911	8138
	2009	0.984	0.006	0.972	0.997	1.0	12041	7619
	2008	0.984	0.007	0.971	0.997	1.0	12117	8265
	2007	0.985	0.007	0.973	0.998	1.0	11081	8287
	2006	0.985	0.006	0.972	0.998	1.0	8021	7397
	2005	0.981	0.006	0.968	0.994	1.0	10740	8300
	2004	0.981	0.007	0.968	0.994	1.0	10144	8388
	2003	0.980	0.006	0.967	0.993	1.0	12774	8366
	2002	0.982	0.006	0.970	0.995	1.0	11710	8077

Table S4. Linear parameter estimates for happiness

Parameter	Year	Estimate	Est.Error	l-95% CI	u-95% CI	Rhat	Bulk_ESS	Tail_ESS
Intercept	2018	-0.316	0.019	-0.353	-0.277	1.0	14006	10228
	2017	-0.291	0.019	-0.329	-0.253	1.0	13073	10321
	2016	-0.306	0.019	-0.344	-0.268	1.0	14068	10370
	2015	-0.313	0.020	-0.353	-0.274	1.0	13763	10488
	2014	-0.297	0.020	-0.335	-0.258	1.0	14018	10053
	2013	-0.312	0.020	-0.351	-0.272	1.0	15651	10085
	2012	-0.334	0.020	-0.374	-0.294	1.0	15044	9419
	2011	-0.329	0.020	-0.368	-0.288	1.0	15264	10032
	2010	-0.293	0.023	-0.338	-0.250	1.0	15413	10151
	2009	-0.322	0.023	-0.368	-0.276	1.0	15612	10143
	2008	-0.286	0.023	-0.332	-0.242	1.0	14927	10486
	2007	-0.234	0.022	-0.278	-0.192	1.0	14104	10340
	2006	-0.300	0.023	-0.344	-0.255	1.0	14512	9458
	2005	-0.304	0.023	-0.350	-0.258	1.0	18269	9269
	2004	-0.337	0.023	-0.383	-0.291	1.0	16123	9961
	2003	-0.300	0.023	-0.345	-0.255	1.0	14964	10083
	2002	-0.237	0.022	-0.280	-0.193	1.0	15569	9592
dollars	2018	0.033	0.002	0.029	0.037	1.0	19127	9998
	2017	0.027	0.002	0.024	0.031	1.0	18387	10060
	2016	0.030	0.002	0.026	0.034	1.0	19864	10204
	2015	0.034	0.002	0.029	0.038	1.0	20147	10087
	2014	0.031	0.002	0.027	0.035	1.0	20813	9558
	2013	0.029	0.002	0.025	0.033	1.0	20564	9776
	2012	0.035	0.002	0.031	0.040	1.0	19263	9816
	2011	0.035	0.002	0.030	0.039	1.0	18440	9290
	2010	0.030	0.002	0.025	0.034	1.0	19683	10210
	2009	0.034	0.003	0.029	0.039	1.0	19411	10133
	2008	0.032	0.002	0.027	0.037	1.0	19275	10239
	2007	0.025	0.002	0.021	0.030	1.0	20606	9870
	2006	0.040	0.003	0.034	0.045	1.0	20396	10117
	2005	0.040	0.003	0.034	0.046	1.0	22024	9664
	2004	0.048	0.003	0.041	0.054	1.0	19019	9389
	2003	0.046	0.003	0.039	0.052	1.0	17897	9692
	2002	0.033	0.003	0.027	0.039	1.0	19647	9792
grad	2018	0.103	0.019	0.066	0.140	1.0	11657	8807
	2017	0.108	0.019	0.071	0.145	1.0	10077	8584
	2016	0.098	0.019	0.061	0.136	1.0	9644	8660
	2015	0.086	0.020	0.048	0.124	1.0	11031	8890
	2014	0.068	0.020	0.029	0.105	1.0	11203	8900
	2013	0.097	0.020	0.058	0.136	1.0	12095	8973
	2012	0.078	0.020	0.039	0.118	1.0	10996	9294
	2011	0.079	0.020	0.039	0.119	1.0	12104	8737
	2010	0.064	0.023	0.018	0.110	1.0	12782	8831
	2009	0.064	0.024	0.017	0.111	1.0	12111	8978
	2008	0.054	0.025	0.006	0.103	1.0	12808	8695
	2007	0.067	0.024	0.020	0.114	1.0	10230	8570
	2006	0.071	0.024	0.024	0.118	1.0	11556	9107
	2005	0.096	0.025	0.047	0.145	1.0	15613	9054
	2004	0.060	0.025	0.011	0.108	1.0	10952	9517
	2003	0.027	0.025	-0.022	0.076	1.0	11297	9208
	2002	0.069	0.025	0.021	0.118	1.0	12773	8684
age	2018	0.115	0.009	0.098	0.132	1.0	11227	9635
	2017	0.106	0.009	0.090	0.123	1.0	11325	8997
	2016	0.091	0.009	0.075	0.108	1.0	12091	8374
	2015	0.082	0.009	0.064	0.099	1.0	10567	8693
	2014	0.058	0.009	0.040	0.076	1.0	10989	8467
	2013	0.056	0.009	0.038	0.074	1.0	12008	9546
	2012	0.049	0.009	0.032	0.067	1.0	11331	9625
	2011	0.050	0.009	0.032	0.068	1.0	13077	9763
	2010	0.027	0.010	0.006	0.047	1.0	10760	8808
	2009	0.047	0.011	0.026	0.068	1.0	10922	8987
	2008	0.041	0.011	0.021	0.062	1.0	12210	9086
	2007	0.048	0.011	0.028	0.068	1.0	12197	10017
	2006	0.054	0.010	0.033	0.074	1.0	11566	9238
	2005	0.059	0.011	0.038	0.080	1.0	14325	9516
	2004	0.066	0.011	0.045	0.087	1.0	11391	9310
	2003	0.043	0.011	0.022	0.064	1.0	12258	9349
	2002	0.045	0.011	0.024	0.066	1.0	11233	8473
age_sq	2018	-0.001	0.008	-0.017	0.015	1.0	11109	8882
	2017	0.010	0.008	-0.006	0.026	1.0	10722	8526
	2016	0.010	0.008	-0.006	0.026	1.0	10926	8888
	2015	0.002	0.008	-0.014	0.018	1.0	10702	8938
	2014	0.018	0.008	0.002	0.034	1.0	10944	8950
	2013	0.026	0.008	0.009	0.042	1.0	11501	9677
	2012	0.014	0.008	-0.003	0.030	1.0	11191	8770
	2011	0.025	0.008	0.009	0.041	1.0	12111	9170
	2010	0.011	0.009	-0.007	0.029	1.0	11752	9509
	2009	0.016	0.009	-0.003	0.034	1.0	11600	9348
	2008	0.012	0.010	-0.008	0.030	1.0	11560	9064
	2007	-0.002	0.010	-0.021	0.017	1.0	10630	8049
	2006	-0.000	0.009	-0.018	0.018	1.0	11386	8843
	2005	0.008	0.009	-0.010	0.026	1.0	14429	8527
	2004	0.009	0.009	-0.009	0.028	1.0	11468	9210
	2003	0.007	0.009	-0.011	0.025	1.0	11813	8675
	2002	-0.009	0.009	-0.026	0.010	1.0	11330	9643
male	2018	0.171	0.016	0.138	0.203	1.0	12081	8698
	2017	0.170	0.016	0.138	0.202	1.0	11135	7889
	2016	0.174	0.016	0.142	0.207	1.0	11233	8879
	2015	0.167	0.017	0.134	0.200	1.0	11220	8949
	2014	0.138	0.017	0.104	0.170	1.0	10685	9161
	2013	0.169	0.017	0.136	0.202	1.0	11261	8336
	2012	0.177	0.017	0.143	0.209	1.0	9968	8683
	2011	0.148	0.017	0.115	0.181	1.0	10976	8591
	2010	0.188	0.019	0.151	0.225	1.0	13088	9238
	2009	0.183	0.020	0.145	0.221	1.0	11448	8924
	2008	0.155	0.020	0.116	0.194	1.0	12673	9016
	2007	0.164	0.020	0.125	0.202	1.0	10811	8779
	2006	0.146	0.019	0.108	0.184	1.0	12257	8727
	2005	0.145	0.019	0.108	0.183	1.0	16872	9600
	2004	0.168	0.019	0.130	0.206	1.0	12085	9283
	2003	0.144	0.019	0.107	0.182	1.0	13152	9230
	2002	0.153	0.019	0.116	0.191	1.0	13412	9750
sigma	2018	0.979	0.006	0.968	0.991	1.0	14442	9369
	2017	0.982	0.006	0.971	0.993	1.0	13014	8298
	2016	0.983	0.006	0.972	0.995	1.0	14319	8855
	2015	0.984	0.006	0.972	0.995	1.0	15810	8843
	2014	0.987	0.006	0.975	0.999	1.0	12493	8776
	2013	0.986	0.006	0.974	0.998	1.0	12853	9242
	2012	0.984	0.006	0.972	0.996	1.0	14535	9003
	2011	0.985	0.006	0.974	0.997	1.0	14082	9203
	2010	0.987	0.007	0.974	1.001	1.0	15396	8926
	2009	0.985	0.007	0.972	0.999	1.0	15378	9419
	2008	0.987	0.007	0.973	1.001	1.0	14429	8890
	2007	0.989	0.007	0.976	1.003	1.0	13405	9885
	2006	0.985	0.007	0.972	0.998	1.0	13470	9216
	2005	0.986	0.007	0.972	1.000	1.0	18106	9150
	2004	0.983	0.007	0.970	0.997	1.0	13797	8844
	2003	0.987	0.007	0.974	1.000	1.0	15662	8452
	2002	0.990	0.007	0.977	1.004	1.0	15600	9265

Additional non-linear fits

We tested the relationship between wealth and each wellbeing variable (happiness and satisfaction) using cubic B-spline models. A cubic B-spline was the most complex model (more degrees of freedom), and included here because it has been recently used to describe the maximum point at which wellbeing no longer increases with wealth (i.e., “satiety”, Jebb et al., 2018). Following Jebb et al (2018), we restricted the cubic B-spline model to n = 4, 5 and 6 knots and display wealth on a log scale.

Figure S5. Cubic spline of household wealth on satisfaction and happiness

The cubic B-spline models failed to reveal a complete satiety point (horizontal inflection) in satisfaction before the highest decile in any year. Also note that despite using a log scale, we do not observe a clear, regular logarithmic function with either wellbeing measure. Other researchers have argued that wealth represents a quantitative dimension subject to Weber’s Law of perception (Kahneman and Deaton, 2010). Under this view, similar proportional changes in income or wealth produce similar evaluations of satisfaction or happiness, rather than the absolute change. That is, a $100 increase in wealth will produce a greater impact on someone earning a minimum wage than someone earning many orders of magnitude of that amount. However while it is true that wealth clearly represents a quantitative dimension, the effects of wealth observed here represent cross-sectional differences in the population rather than changes experienced by an individual over time. It is not clear the extent to which Weber’s Law applies to cross-sectional or between-subject differences in quantitative dimensions such as wealth.

Figure S6. Prior predictive plot

(Not included)

Figure S7. Marginal effect of wealth on satisfaction by year (95% CI)

(Not included)

References

Jebb, A.T., Tay, L., Diener, E., Oishi, S., 2018. Happiness, income satiation and turning points around the world. Nature Human Behaviour 2, 33–38.

Kahneman, D., Deaton, A., 2010. High income improves evaluation of life but not emotional well-being. Proceedings of the national academy of sciences 107, 16489–16493.